Former HP Chief Technologist Assisting Startups

March 8th, 2010

Over the last several months I have been offering my time, experience, knowledge, network and reputation to increase the success of established companies as well as startups. Through the power of LinkedIn, I have been contacted by over 700 companies to date with about 600 of those being early to mid-stage startups.

It is amazing the diversity of products, services and markets that innovators around the globe have shown me! New web technologies. New green technologies. New consumer products. Innovators from every where: U.S., Canada, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, India, Africa, Australia, France, Belgium, Russia, Israel, England…the list goes on and on.

The potential to dramtically improve our world is all around us within these innovations and entrepreneurs - but, that potential is often unfulfilled for a myriad of diverse reasons. As I talked to these innovators, examined their ideas/products and considered how to work with them I quickly became frustrated by the lack of support systems to guide these companies toward success at low costs that fit their budget constraints. After working with many groups and individuals, I have assembled assets to help virtually any company regardless of their current stage or position.

If you have seen the new television show ‘Shark Tank’ (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hLhyny2GLtk&feature=related), then you have seen a very small sampling of the challenges that entrepreneurs are facing. The old adage “It takes money to make money” is never more true than within a young company. And the “sharks” take full advantage of that!

Some of the challenges that startups must resolve include:

  • Prepare a working business plan that can be quickly evolved for investors and partners.
  • Put together an investor presentation.
  • Develop financial projections - costs, earnings, breakeven, etc.
  • Create a one pager executive summary.
  • Lay out operations and sales processes.
  • Establish a board of advisors with industry leaders participating.
  • Determine executive management transition plans to meet investor’s requirements.
  • Begin networking to foster introductions to VCs and angels.
  • Establish distribution channels and partnerships.
  • Define sales prospects and layout sales pipeline.
  • Create marketing and sales collateral.
  • Develop website and online presence.
  • Reach out for potential customer introductions.

I am the former Chief Technologist at Hewlett-Packard and the Chief Product Architect at Verizon. I hold 25 granted patents. My book, Innovate the Future: A Radical New Approach to Innovation, will be published by Prentice-Hall in May, 2010. I am a GLG Expert Leader and Vistage Chair. I have recently assisted companies innovating in areas as diverse as drug delivery systems, consumer electronic materials, supply chain creation/management, social networking services, Smartphone services, identifiying angel and VC funding, clarifying all aspects for consumers, markets and investors, and many other areas.

If your company (established or startup) could benefit from the knowledge, experience, professional network and reputation of a globally recognized technology and innovation leader, please contact me at the email address below.

Also, please join my Innovate the Future group on LinkedIn: http://www.linkedin.com/groups?gid=1831025

If you would like to connect with me on LinkedIn: http://www.linkedin.com/in/innovatethefuture

Best,

David…

David Croslin
President, Innovate the Future, Inc.
www.davidcroslin.com
www.innovatethefuture.com

Challenges of Startups

January 14th, 2010

Several weeks ago I posted a discussion on LinkedIn offering to work with startups. It has been an exhausting, exciting and surprisingly informative time. If you are interested in having me work with your startup in some way, please read this post thoroughly. If you do read it, you can avoid the errors of many other startups. PLEASE NOTE: YOU DO NOT HAVE TO HAVE A COMPLETED ONE PAGER TO CONTACT ME!

I Received over 400 Responses 

I received well over 400 responses (most in a four day period) and I am still receiving responses. It is impossible to describe the sheer breadth of innovations that were described in these responses: social networking to SmartPhone applications to business processes to medical instruments to energy conservation devices. I tried to give each response a reasonable degree of due diligence, but the sheer volume of responses caused me to reject a large number within minutes of receiving them. I will try to explain why I rejected so many including quite a few that sounded like they could be real winners. 

I Rejected 300 Immediately

The thing that surprised me the most was how many of the startups did not know how to present their inventions/innovations in a manner that would attract my interest. Of the 400 responses, I rejected over 300 of the startups for four reasons:

  1. Too far outside my area of expertise/interest – In many cases this was done based on review of a single sentence or paragraph. There was often so little information for me to go on that I had to guess what they were trying to describe. I easily received 30-40 responses that consisted of a single sentence explaining the “tremendous opportunity” of their startup.
  2. Pushing for immediate funding assistance – I do not mind working with startups to find funding but I have to believe in the company first. The majority in this category often created a negative feeling by focusing on using me rather than involving me.
  3. Throwing out one idea after another – I am a firm believer in exploring many potential opportunities. However, several responders approached me with “I have a cool idea” as their major selling point. There was no description of market, competition or anything else. Just a “cool idea”.
  4. Partners – The startup wanted to make me their partner so that I could sell their products and make us both rich. I can understand the desire to use my network of contacts. But, I am not a salesman and my credentials should make that pretty clear.

I Rejected 20 Asking Me to ‘Fly Blind’

Of the remaining 100 responses, about twenty I ignored completely because they asked me to sign an NDA or to call them right away without providing any details at all on their startup. I want to get involved, but I kind of like to know what I am getting involved in. Just to be sure I wasn’t rejecting the cream of the crop, I called two of the early responses in this category and each of them wanted to sell me something. The rest got chucked quickly.

I Rejected 50 More Because They Couldn’t ‘Sell Me’

I either emailed or spoke with all of the remaining 80 responders. In about 50 cases I asked for more information and never received anything that kept me from categorizing them into the four groups described above. While the additional information was sometimes helpful it in no way provided me with sufficient information to make an informed decision to become involved. These startups had no ready ‘elevator speech’ to entice me to remain involved.

I Rejected 15 that Couldn’t Explain Why They Were Contacting Me

I was really surprised by some of the startups that presented themselves very well and appeared to have a good product, good market and real potential. The conversations I had with about 15 of the remaining 30 followed something like this:

Startup: ‘What can you do for us?’

Me: ‘Why did you contact me?’

Startup: ‘We weren’t sure what you could do for us, but we figured with your background we should contact you.’

Me: ‘You have seen my credentials. What synergies do you see between your startup and me?’

Startup: ‘Oh, lots of synergies. Please let us know how you want to get involved.’

At this point I rejected them. I don’t have time to analyze their business to see if I can help them. I suspect that many of them just wanted to use my name without any real involvement on my part in the startup. Sorry, I don’t work that way. If I am involved, then I am truly involved.

 15 Remaining

Of the remaining 15, here is a brief summary:

  1. I accepted being on the board of advisors of an excellent startup. This company will now be a use case in my new book.
  2. I accepted being on the board of advisors of a wonderful non-profit organization, the International Child Art Foundation. The ICAF will now be a use case in my new book.
  3. I am working with 3 startups to assist them in identifying funding.
  4. I am mentoring 4 young entrepreneurs
  5. I am talking to the rest about working with them further.

 Summary of the Responses

 Here is an approximate breakdown of the over 400 replies and what the startups were contacting me for:  (percentages exceed 100% due to multiple needs within the same startup):

  1. Seeking funding - 60%
  2. Seeking mentoring - 70%
  3. Seeking board member - 60%
  4. Seeking executive team member - 75%
  5. Seeking partner - 15%
  6. Not completely sure why they contacted me – 20%

What Was Missing in the Responses?

 So, out of the 400+ responses, I rejected over 385, some with very little review. What could the startups have done better in order to attract, maintain and lock in my involvement?

Below is part of what was missing. Please note that I never once mention a business plan. I will explain more about the business plan later.

  1. ONE PAGER - A clear definition of who the startup was and what they were trying to accomplish. This can, AND MUST, be accomplished in a single ‘one pager’ document. VC’s, angels and advisors such as me require a brief summation of the startup to provide the initial detail needed for evaluation. This is the MOST critical piece of paper you will ever produce for your startup. Surprisingly, I received only TWO one pagers out of the over 400 responses.
  2. DEFINITION OF NEED - You don’t go to the grocery store without some idea of what you need. Coming to a potential investor, potential partner or potential advisor with anything less than a clear definition of your need is a complete waste of everyone’s time and energy. 
  3. DEFINITION OF DIRECTION – What is the roadmap for your product? How do you plan to develop it? Evolve it? Test it? Deploy it? Maintain it? You don’t have to know the details of each stage in the roadmap such as exact cost and time. But, you must be able to articulate that you have a firm understanding of the challenges ahead and how you plan to address them. You must be able to ball park costs and timeframes.
  4. DEFINITION OF MARKET – How big is your market? Global or domestic? What are the potential challenges in each market? What are the potential liabilities? Don’t ask an investor to enter into a relationship blind. If you try, you will quickly lose the investor once they discover in the due diligence phase that you either haven’t considered all issues or you are not exposing the risks.
  5. DEFINITION OF COMPETITION – Who is going to stomp you before you get to market? Who are the big and little players in the market? Great ideas don’t mean a lot if they never make money because the competition got there first or crushed you when they did get there.
  6. DEFINITION OF UNIQUENESS – Can you defend your product with patents, trade secrets, time to market or other mechanisms? How long will it take the big competitors to create a work around to your intellectual property and then crush you?
  7. LACK OF APPRECIATION OF OPPORTUNITIES – I had a very brilliant gentleman call me this morning  out of the blue to assist me with a business issue. We had never met before and a common acquaintance pointed him in my direction. He was nice enough to take time out of his day (New Years Day!) to call me. I was extremely grateful and made sure he knew it. Many of the contacts I made withthe representatives of my 400 startups were equally as gracious and appreciative of my time. Some were not. Enough said.
  8. MORE AND MORE…

Forget the Business Plan

Notice that I did not say I expected to see 400 business plans. Frankly, I would probably shoot myself if I had to read 400 business plans. That is why the one pager and the other info I mention briefly above is so critical. Let me give you an example. Over the last three months I have met with ten of the largest VCs in North America to discuss one of my startups. Here are the steps that were followed in ALL cases:

  1. Either I made direct contact or a member of my network made direct contact with the VC or angel. The initial contact included forwarding the one pager for the startup.
  2. Investors that were not interested immediately declined getting involved. In many cases this was due to a conflict with an investment they already had in place. But there are other reasons that can be negotiated away.
  3. Phone call to discuss product, market, competitors, funding and other topics to validate the VC’s understanding of the one pager and to set up a time for a face to face meeting.
  4. Face to face meeting to expand details with multiple representatives of the VC. In EVERY case the VCs showed up with a marked up version of the one pager. It was the foundation for our continued discussions.
  5. Follow up calls and emails to establish understanding and interest.
  6. VC begins due diligence.
  7. Business Plan, term sheet, investor deck, etc are now needed.

Notice where the one pager and other info I described earlier are? Step ONE! Notice where the business plan is? Step SEVEN! In between steps one and seven the VC expects you to be able to prove to them that they should remain involved. Otherwise, they don’t have time. And they never want to see a business plan until late in the funding process, if then.

If you don’t get anything else out of this posting, please understand this: YOU WILL PROBABLY NEVER GET MONEY FROM A POTENTIAL INVESTOR IF YOU DO NOT HAVE A POWERFUL ONE PAGER AND UNDERSTAND HOW TO PRESENT YOUR COMPANY TO THE INVESTOR! Your company’s one pager is the equivalent of your personal resume. You must have the best one pager around to open the investor’s door to further discussions and eventual funding.

So What Are Your Next Steps?

If you are interested in contacting me about working with your company, you DO NOT have to have a completed one pager and the other materials discussed above.

Former Chief Technologist at Hewlett-Packard Looking to Work with Startups

January 1st, 2010

Two weeks ago I posted a discussion on LinkedIn offering to work with startups. It has been an exhausting, exciting and surprisingly informative two weeks. If you are interested in having me work with your startup in some way, please read this post thoroughly. If you do read it, you can avoid the errors of many other startups.

If you have already contacted me about your startup and I passed on working with your startup for some reason, please read this posting. You can re-contact me by sending me your one pager (as described below).

For those of you that did not see the original posting, here is the text of that post: 

If you know of a startup company that could benefit from the knowledge, experience, professional network and reputation of a globally recognized technology and innovation leader.

 I am looking for one or two startups that I can work with on their road to success as a virtual C-level officer, board member, advisor or other relationship.

 I am the former Chief Technologist at Hewlett-Packard and the Chief Product Architect at Verizon. I hold 25 granted patents. My book, Innovate the Future, will be published by Prentice-Hall in April, 2010. I am a GLG Expert Leader. I have recently assisted companies innovating in areas as diverse as drug delivery systems, consumer electronic materials, supply chain creation/management, social networking services, Smartphone services, identifying angel and VC funding, clarifying all aspects for consumers, markets and investors, and many other areas.

 

I Received over 400 Responses 

I received well over 400 responses (most in a four day period) and I am still receiving responses. It is impossible to describe the sheer breadth of innovations that were described in these responses: social networking to SmartPhone applications to business processes to medical instruments to energy conservation devices. I tried to give each response a reasonable degree of due diligence, but the sheer volume of responses caused me to reject a large number within minutes of receiving them. I will try to explain why I rejected so many including quite a few that sounded like they could be real winners. 

I Rejected 300 Immediately

The thing that surprised me the most was how many of the startups did not know how to present their inventions/innovations in a manner that would attract my interest. Of the 400 responses, I rejected over 300 of the startups for four reasons:

  1. Too far outside my area of expertise/interest – In many cases this was done based on review of a single sentence or paragraph. There was often so little information for me to go on that I had to guess what they were trying to describe. I easily received 30-40 responses that consisted of a single sentence explaining the “tremendous opportunity” of their startup.
  2. Pushing for immediate funding assistance – I do not mind working with startups to find funding but I have to believe in the company first. The majority in this category often created a negative feeling by focusing on using me rather than involving me.
  3. Throwing out one idea after another – I am a firm believer in exploring many potential opportunities. However, several responders approached me with “I have a cool idea” as their major selling point. There was no description of market, competition or anything else. Just a “cool idea”.
  4. Partners – The startup wanted to make me their partner so that I could sell their products and make us both rich. I can understand the desire to use my network of contacts. But, I am not a salesman and my credentials should make that pretty clear.

I Rejected 20 Asking Me to ‘Fly Blind’

Of the remaining 100 responses, about twenty I ignored completely because they asked me to sign an NDA or to call them right away without providing any details at all on their startup. I want to get involved, but I kind of like to know what I am getting involved in. Just to be sure I wasn’t rejecting the cream of the crop, I called two of the early responses in this category and each of them wanted to sell me something. The rest got chucked quickly.

I Rejected 50 More Because They Couldn’t ‘Sell Me’

I either emailed or spoke with all of the remaining 80 responders. In about 50 cases I asked for more information and never received anything that kept me from categorizing them into the four groups described above. While the additional information was sometimes helpful it in no way provided me with sufficient information to make an informed decision to become involved. These startups had no ready ‘elevator speech’ to entice me to remain involved.

I Rejected 15 that Couldn’t Explain Why They Were Contacting Me

I was really surprised by some of the startups that presented themselves very well and appeared to have a good product, good market and real potential. The conversations I had with about 15 of the remaining 30 followed something like this:

Startup: ‘What can you do for us?’

Me: ‘Why did you contact me?’

Startup: ‘We weren’t sure what you could do for us, but we figured with your background we should contact you.’

Me: ‘You have seen my credentials. What synergies do you see between your startup and me?’

Startup: ‘Oh, lots of synergies. Please let us know how you want to get involved.’

At this point I rejected them. I don’t have time to analyze their business to see if I can help them. I suspect that many of them just wanted to use my name without any real involvement on my part in the startup. Sorry, I don’t work that way. If I am involved, then I am truly involved.

 15 Remaining

Of the remaining 15, here is a brief summary:

  1. I accepted being on the board of advisors of an excellent startup. This company will now be a use case in my new book.
  2. I accepted being on the board of advisors of a wonderful non-profit organization, the International Child Art Foundation. The ICAF will now be a use case in my new book.
  3. I am working with 3 startups to assist them in identifying funding.
  4. I am mentoring 4 young entrepreneurs
  5. I am talking to the rest about working with them further.

 Summary of the Responses

 Here is an approximate breakdown of the over 400 replies and what the startups were contacting me for:  (percentages exceed 100% due to multiple needs within the same startup):

  1. Seeking funding - 60%
  2. Seeking mentoring - 70%
  3. Seeking board member - 60%
  4. Seeking executive team member - 75%
  5. Seeking partner - 15%
  6. Not completely sure why they contacted me – 20%

What Was Missing in the Responses?

 So, out of the 400+ responses, I rejected over 385, some with very little review. What could the startups have done better in order to attract, maintain and lock in my involvement?

Below is part of what was missing. Please note that I never once mention a business plan. I will explain more about the business plan later.

  1. ONE PAGER - A clear definition of who the startup was and what they were trying to accomplish. This can, AND MUST, be accomplished in a single ‘one pager’ document. VC’s, angels and advisors such as me require a brief summation of the startup to provide the initial detail needed for evaluation. This is the MOST critical piece of paper you will ever produce for your startup. Surprisingly, I received only TWO one pagers out of the over 400 responses.
  2. DEFINITION OF NEED - You don’t go to the grocery store without some idea of what you need. Coming to a potential investor, potential partner or potential advisor with anything less than a clear definition of your need is a complete waste of everyone’s time and energy. 
  3. DEFINITION OF DIRECTION – What is the roadmap for your product? How do you plan to develop it? Evolve it? Test it? Deploy it? Maintain it? You don’t have to know the details of each stage in the roadmap such as exact cost and time. But, you must be able to articulate that you have a firm understanding of the challenges ahead and how you plan to address them. You must be able to ball park costs and timeframes.
  4. DEFINITION OF MARKET – How big is your market? Global or domestic? What are the potential challenges in each market? What are the potential liabilities? Don’t ask an investor to enter into a relationship blind. If you try, you will quickly lose the investor once they discover in the due diligence phase that you either haven’t considered all issues or you are not exposing the risks.
  5. DEFINITION OF COMPETITION – Who is going to stomp you before you get to market? Who are the big and little players in the market? Great ideas don’t mean a lot if they never make money because the competition got there first or crushed you when they did get there.
  6. DEFINITION OF UNIQUENESS – Can you defend your product with patents, trade secrets, time to market or other mechanisms? How long will it take the big competitors to create a work around to your intellectual property and then crush you?
  7. LACK OF APPRECIATION OF OPPORTUNITIES – I had a very brilliant gentleman call me this morning  out of the blue to assist me with a business issue. We had never met before and a common acquaintance pointed him in my direction. He was nice enough to take time out of his day (New Years Day!) to call me. I was extremely grateful and made sure he knew it. Many of the contacts I made withthe representatives of my 400 startups were equally as gracious and appreciative of my time. Some were not. Enough said.
  8. MORE AND MORE…

Forget the Business Plan

Notice that I did not say I expected to see 400 business plans. Frankly, I would probably shoot myself if I had to read 400 business plans. That is why the one pager and the other info I mention briefly above is so critical. Let me give you an example. Over the last three months I have met with ten of the largest VCs in North America to discuss one of my startups. Here are the steps that were followed in ALL cases:

  1. Either I made direct contact or a member of my network made direct contact with the VC or angel. The initial contact included forwarding the one pager for the startup.
  2. Investors that were not interested immediately declined getting involved. In many cases this was due to a conflict with an investment they already had in place. But there are other reasons that can be negotiated away.
  3. Phone call to discuss product, market, competitors, funding and other topics to validate the VC’s understanding of the one pager and to set up a time for a face to face meeting.
  4. Face to face meeting to expand details with multiple representatives of the VC. In EVERY case the VCs showed up with a marked up version of the one pager. It was the foundation for our continued discussions.
  5. Follow up calls and emails to establish understanding and interest.
  6. VC begins due diligence.
  7. Business Plan, term sheet, investor deck, etc are now needed.

Notice where the one pager and other info I described earlier are? Step ONE! Notice where the business plan is? Step SEVEN! In between steps one and seven the VC expects you to be able to prove to them that they should remain involved. Otherwise, they don’t have time. And they never want to see a business plan until late in the funding process, if then.

If you don’t get anything else out of this posting, please understand this: YOU WILL PROBABLY NEVER GET MONEY FROM A POTENTIAL INVESTOR IF YOU DO NOT HAVE A POWERFUL ONE PAGER AND UNDERSTAND HOW TO PRESENT YOUR COMPANY TO THE INVESTOR! Your company’s one pager is the equivalent of your personal resume. You must have the best one pager around to open the investor’s door to further discussions and eventual funding.

So What Are the Next Steps?

I still want to work with startups and help them become winners. But, it is critical that you present your startup in a professional and well defined manner to anyone you are asking for assistance, be it time, advice or money.

Many of those that contacted me wanted mentoring concerning their startups on how to define their product, how to market it, how to find partners, how to get funding, how to locate investors, etc.

I spoke with my advisors about how to assist so many startups and still maintain my own life and sanity. They recommended I put on a webinar that will cover these topics in much greater detail.

This webinar will cover the following: 

  1. How to create a one pager that will optimally sell your startup to VCs, angels, potential board members, partners, etc. Free samples (fictitious) will be provided.
  2. How to talk to investors and show them that they need to invest in your company.
  3. What you need to know about your competitors and their products, your markets, your roadmap and many other topics.
  4. How to talk business and not technology. Most investors no longer want to hear about the technology first. The most critical aspect is the business impact - customers, development roadmap, current stage and just how much and when are they going to make money.
  5. How to find and get in front of VCs and angels and other investors (corporate, etc.).
  6. Understanding what will impress an investor or partner and keep them involved with you. What is the true value of advisors, board members, etc?
  7. How to map your invention/product to a market and describe the benefits, potential returns, etc.
  8. How to avoid the ‘cool idea’ syndrome.  ‘Cool ideas’ don’t sell investors.

In addition, after the webinar, you will be able to submit your one pager to me for review. I will then use that as a foundation for evaluation, establishing further discussions and possibly assisting you moving forward. 

SIGN UP FOR THE WEBINAR

If you are interested in learning more about how to create your one pager and how to sell your startup to investors and advisors like myself, please drop me a note and let me know. Depending on response, I will try and schedule a webinar soon.

Netbooks Will Dominate Future PC Sales

September 10th, 2009

Original Web Article: Acer Q2 results show risks of cheap netbooks

Review Summary: 
The trend towards Netbooks will continue to accelerate and prices will remain low relative to traditional PC desktops and notebooks. Margins will improve and sales of accessory devices will increase. Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) is betting the farm on this becoming a reality. Netbooks are Microsoft’s vehicle for driving sales of Windows 7 and Office 10.
Review/Analysis:  
Sales of Netbooks would be accelerating much faster, except Microsoft put the brakes on Netbook sales in June. OEMs were selling Netbooks with XP and a hybrid drive environment, a Solid State Drive (SSD) and a Hard Drive (HD). It made a lot of sense by giving the Netbook faster startup using the SSD and then the rest of the OS on the HD. But, Microsoft outlawed this in June and allows XP on Netbooks only with up to a 16GB SSD OR up to a 160GB HD.  NOT BOTH. This made the Netbook either a portable access device with minimal storage or unacceptable performance for many applications.
Microsoft understands how the Netbook will transform the computing world. The concept of a ‘network device’ with minimal built in capability has been around for years. What is new, is the ability to actually deliver one that meets the  needs of business customers and not just consumers. Microsoft didn’t want the Netbook to become too pervasive unless they could drive a completely new experience with it.
Coincidentally, Windows 7 is designed to run optimally from SSD. It is also more touch oriented, versus keyboard oriented, than XP. In short, Windows 7 is designed to maximize a Netbook environment running on lower power processors.
What about running business applications? Like Word? Excel? Check out Microsoft Office 10. Web based. Full featured. Very similar user interface to existing Office platforms. Perfect for a lower power, portable access device like a Netbook.
What about other applications like Customer Resource Management and ERP? Check out what Oracle (NASDAQ:ORCL) is trying to deliver with their Fusion products. Or, solutions from companies like Epicor (NASDAQ:EPIC). Again, perfect for Netbooks.
What about security? Netbooks are the dream of every Chief Security Officer on the planet. No data stored on the local Netbook. Add a biometric logon feature and you have a virtually impenetrable access device. Why slow down the universe with layers of antivirus, antispyware and other monitoring layers?
IT departments will love Netbooks. No applications on the end device. All web based definitions. Replacing failing devices is a breeze. Retraining for hardware upgrades becomes nonexistent. Upgrade costs are drastically reduced. Pay per use applications.
Data center’s are consolidating and outsourcing. With virtualization, inline deduplication of data and many other new technologies, the ‘cloud’ is now totally possible with a superb ROI.
Netbooks will quickly become the replacement form factor for large and small enterprises. Competition will keep prices low and features up. Look for the resulting decrease in IT expenditures on notebooks/desktops. CAPEX will shift internally to data center and infrastructure.
Will Netbooks make the OEMs rich? No. Will OEMS, like HP (NYSE:HPQ), that have large data center product bases benefit? Absolutely. Do Netbooks create tremendous opportunities for third party products, devices and software? Absolutely. Especially those with ‘good enough’ offerings that allow penetration into the small to medium enterprise space.
 

David Croslin
President, Innovate the Future, Inc.
CEO, LinoWave, Inc.
david@innovatethefuture.com
www.innovatethefuture.com
www.davidcroslin.com
www.linowave.com
 

SPEAK WITH THE AUTHOR:
David Croslin consults on this and many other topics through Gerson Lehrman Group. Please click here to contact David Croslin. 

Netbooks Are Just a Piece of the New PC Paradigm

September 8th, 2009

Original Web Article: Netbooks post higher demand than notebook PCs in Q2

Review Summary: 
Viewing Netbooks standalone makes them appear as a low end, second device choice for consumers. In reality, they will have major impacts in enterprises.It is critical to understand the impacts of three Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) initiatives:

  • Windows 7
  • Windows Media Player 12
  • Office 10

In addition, key shifts in how software and services integrate with devices are occurring right now. These include expansion of cloud computing (IaaS, PaaS, SaaS, AaaS), ‘good enough’ platforms (Oracle (NASDAQ:ORCL) Fusion) & security.

Review/Analysis:  
Frankly, the first time I looked at a Netbook all I could think of was my Texas Instruments (NYSE:TXN) Compact Computer-40 released in 1983 for $249. Sure, the Netbook has a lot more memory, storage capacity, processor power and connectivity. But, would I be able to do my job using a netbook? Or, was it just a new, more powerful product for my kids that supercedes their Nintendo (OSA:7974) or xBox?

If you just look at a Netbook today, you see a ‘good enough’ product that will solve some people’s needs. Kind of a large SmartPhone. But, why bother?

Why did Microsoft put the brakes on installing XP on Netbooks that had a hybrid drive environment, a Solid State Drive (SSD) and a Hard Drive (HD)? It made a lot of sense to give the Netbook faster startup using the SSD and then the rest of the OS on the HD. But, Microsoft outlawed this in June. They now allow XP on Netbooks only with up to a 16GB SSD OR up to a 160GB HD. Why?

My take is that Microsoft wanted to DE-celerate the Netbook market until Windows 7 is available. Windows 7 is designed to run optimally from SSD. It is also more touch oriented, versus keyboard oriented, than XP. In short, Windows 7 is designed to maximize a Netbook environment. I am sure that Microsoft will lift the SSD/HD hybrid ban once Windows 7 is available.

Will you actually need the hard drive? Will the SSD be enough? After all, Netbooks are already lacking lots of other components like CD/DVD drives.

I can hear you saying “16GB SSD”! No way! What about all my media content? What about all my applications that I need to use for business?

Well, the answer is simply ‘the cloud’. I know, I know. What cloud? Well, it is coming and it is coming at an accelerating pace. My PCs are all backed up into the cloud and have been for the last two years. Including all my media. 

A lot of the ‘media’ we use now is already in the cloud. TV on demand. YouTube. NetFlix (NASDAQ:NFLX) downloads. iTunes.  And guess what Windows Media Player 12 is designed for. Yep, handling all that content in the cloud. Not to mention Windows Media Center, which is designed to extend the cloud into your home devices on command.
What about those pesky applications? Like Word? Excel? Check out Microsoft Office 10. Web based. Full featured. Very similar user interface to existing Office platforms. But, primarily based in the cloud.  CRM? ERP? Check out what Oracle is trying to deliver with their Fusion products. Or, solutions from companies like Epicor (NASDAQ:EPIC). Cloud based solutions that are good enough to easily handle small to medium enterprises.

The cloud concept isn’t new. So, why is it possible today? Because of virtualization, inline deduplication and other technologies that maximize the utilization of data center resources. No idle servers. No duplicated storage. And higher and higher speed communications make the transmission virtually transparent.

Netbooks are the dream of every Chief Security Officer on the planet. No data stored on the local Netbook. Add a biometric logon feature and you have a virtually impenetrable access device. Why slow down the universe with layers of anti-virus, anti-spyware and other monitoring layers?

IT departments will love Netbooks. No applications on the end device. All web based definitions. Replacing failing devices is a breeze. Retraining for hardware upgrades becomes nonexistent. Upgrade costs are drastically reduced. Pay per use applications.

Netbooks by themselves are cute. Combine them with the right OS, the right media manager, data center virtualization, high speed communications and all types of cloud computing (Infrastructure as a Service, Platform as a Service, Software as a Service, Application as a Service) and Netbooks then become the portable workhorse of the future.
 

David Croslin
President, Innovate the Future, Inc.
david@innovatethefuture.com
www.innovatethefuture.com
www.davidcroslin.com

SPEAK WITH THE AUTHOR:
David Croslin consults on this and many other topics through Gerson Lehrman Group. Please click here to contact David Croslin. 

Alcatel-Lucent Expanding Services and Metro Offerings

July 29th, 2009

Original Web Article: Alcatel-Lucent Acquires Velocix for Multi-Source Content Delivery Network

Review Summary: 
It appears that Alcatel-Lucent (EPA:ALU) might be getting their act together. Acquisitions, partnerships and outsourcing improving future outlook.
Review/Analysis:  
When you combine two behemoths like Alcatel and Lucent together, you can expect major integration issues including product differentiation, market overlaps, redundant teams and more. Alcatel-Lucent exhibited every possible problem inherent in such a huge merger and many of us wondered if they would ever recover.
But, eventually, the right leader starts to pound out the problems. Ben Verwaayen appears to be that leader. He has slashed expenses and continues to optimize the corporate structure through deals like the outsourcing agreement with HP (NYSE:HPQ) that will allow Alcatel-Lucent to focus on what it is good at: communications. The HP agreement also sets Alcatel-Lucent up to be a major player and to benefit from the changes brought on by cloud computing, virtualization, de-duplication and the shift to netbooks. HP is making key strategic moves to compete aggressively against Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO) and Juniper (NASDAQ:JNPR). Alcatel-Lucent will undoubtedly benefit from those moves.
In addition, Alcatel-Lucent is deepening its own attack within the services space and improving its competitive position against Cisco and Juniper in the consumer, SMB, enterprise and ISP spaces. The Velocix acquisition starts to round out the picture by giving Alcatel-Lucent a content delivery network play for ISPs and carriers. Alcatel-Lucent is finally gaining credible competitive positioning beyond their legacy backbone network space.
Other acquisitions over the last two years that are critical indicators of the direction that Alcatel-Lucent is heading: Tropic Networks (a metro WDM network supplier), NetDevices (enterprise services gateways), Thompson Advisory Group (telecommunications consulting), Tamblin (IPTV solutions) and Motive (service management software for broadband and mobile data services).
Alcatel-Lucent is doing the right things to break out of the traditional network equipment vendor mold and go after recurring services revenues. Look for Alcatel-Lucent to provide the infrastructure for services delivery for many carriers like Verizon Business (NYSE:VZ).
 

David Croslin
President, Innovate the Future, Inc.
david@innovatethefuture.com
www.innovatethefuture.com
www.davidcroslin.com

SPEAK WITH THE AUTHOR:
David Croslin consults on this and many other topics through Gerson Lehrman Group. Please click here to contact David Croslin. 

The Google Monopoly - Where Will it Go

July 29th, 2009

Original Web Article: Microsoft, Yahoo Expected To Sign Online Search, Advertising Deal

Review Summary: 
Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) controls 75% of the Search/Advertising space. They are garnishing over 90% of all new growth. Time to break the monopoly? What will the potential Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) & Yahoo pact mean?

Review/Analysis:  
The potential deal between Microsoft and Yahoo has always been a good idea. People got greedy and delayed it for a year and cost Yahoo shareholders an arm and two legs.

But, what difference will a deal between Microsoft and Yahoo make now? Google controls the search space and by inference the advertising space. Google is approaching control of 75% of the search market and is garnishing over 90% of the new market growth.

There are a couple of issues that are eventually going to be headed to the courts:

  • Who should own the ’search index’ for the Internet? If I want to list my business in a phone book, I can do so and I get equal billing with all the other companies that pay the same rate as me. Yet, Google’s processes make it almost impossible for a new company to appear in search results, no matter how applicable, unless they pay Google for searchs and ads. Google’s systems consistently try to force an advertiser to increase their bids. I have had keywords become ‘inactive’ because my bid was too low to appear on the first page of search results. Yet, when you look, there are only one or two ads on the search results page.There will come a time when the Google monopoly control of the Internet ‘index’ is broken up - like ATT (NYSE:T) was for the US phone network.  
  • Ads often use copyrighted and trademarked names. Google, like the advertisers, make money off of those names because they lend credibility to the ad and entice consumers to click on the ad.  Class action lawsuits are already being filed to pursue damages against Google and others.
    Let’s face it, the Internet ’search index’ is quickly becoming a natural monopoly that should be controlled by a single source and utilized, at a fee, by all search companies, including Google. IP addresses are centrally controlled by the not-for-profit ICANN (Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers). Then anyone could freely make their companies available to open search engines. I would love to see who REALLY has the best result for my search query, unfiltered by ad generation algorithms.

Following an ICANN model for the search index also falls directly inline with current moves to expand broadband penetration to rural areas and businesses. Spending $7.2 billion dollars on network infrastructure so that rural companies can sell products and provide jobs is great. But, if the companies can’t be visible to their markets due to search result filtering practices the equation starts to fall apart.

Microsoft and Yahoo are potentially good partners. They complement each other well. Microsoft’s new Bing search engine is an excellent evolution of searching, something that Google has no desire or impetus to do. How can Google improve the search experience when it is driven by revenue expectations in their ad business? In spite, of all the Google innovations, Google still makes 97% of their revenues from advertising (page 38).
 

David Croslin
President, Innovate the Future, Inc.
david@innovatethefuture.com
www.innovatethefuture.com
www.davidcroslin.com

SPEAK WITH THE AUTHOR:
David Croslin consults on this and many other topics through Gerson Lehrman Group. Please click here to contact David Croslin. 

Unisys on Road to Success - But Not a Surprise

July 29th, 2009

Original Web Article: Unisys surprises analysts with 2Q profit

Review Summary: 
Unisys (NYSE:UIS)’ positive results should not really be a surprise. Ed Coleman is the right guy and they are making the right moves.

Review/Analysis:  
Unisys needed to shift more aggressively from a technology company to a services company. Ed Coleman, the new Chairman and CEO, is the right leader for the job.

Coleman is slashing costs at Unisys by more than $225 million annually.

Unisys’ services side is primarily outsourcing and consulting with a focus on secure computing. They have extensive experience in governments and law enforcement. But, for Unisys to remain a player in the enterprise space and to penetrate the SMB space more effectively, they needed something that would distinguish them from HP (NYSE:HPQ)/EDS (NYSE:EDS) and IBM (NYSE:IBM). 

In response, Unisys announced the Secure Cloud. The perfect cloud computing solution that addresses the number one fear of everyone that looks at cloud computing: security. How do I keep my business data safe. Unisys has the best solution at this time.

Also, Unisys’ cloud offering goes beyond anything that HP or IBM are deploying. With Unisys’ global data centers they are perfectly positioned to offer the full gambit of cloud computing layers. These include Infrastructure as a Service (IAAS), Platform as a Service (PAAS) and Software as a Service (SaaS). Unisys has gone one better still by defining Application as a Service (AaaS).

By offering the ‘whole enchilada’ of cloud computing, Unisys sets themselves apart from Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Google (NASDAQ:GOOG), HP, IBM and all the other current players. In addition, utilization of their data centers for cloud computing and the deployment of full virtualization will allow them to lower their overall data center costs significantly while increasing the revenue per server. It will also allow Unisys to be a major player in the expansion of IT sales into the SMB space where the products have traditionally been too expensive. Cloud computing will greatly lower the cost of entry for SMBs. New, simplified Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) solutions from companies like Epicor (NASDAQ:EPIC) (and potentially with Oracle (NASDAQ:ORCL) Fusion products) bring mainstream IT functionality to the SMBs.

In addition, Unisys is making great alliances with companies like Dell (NASDAQ:DELL). Dell is attacking the SMB space with partner ATT (NYSE:T) through Dell’s ProManage program. Unisys stands to benefit greatly.
Unisys’ positive numbers should not have been a surprise. All the signs were there. Ed Coleman will make many more changes. Look for Unisys to do very well going forward.
 

David Croslin
President, Innovate the Future, Inc.
david@innovatethefuture.com
www.innovatethefuture.com
www.davidcroslin.com

SPEAK WITH THE AUTHOR:
David Croslin consults on this and many other topics through Gerson Lehrman Group. Please click here to contact David Croslin. 

Cbeyond Targeted With Pure Lemon Juice

July 28th, 2009

Original Web Article: Citron asks:  Can Investors “See Beyond” market hype, and get to the cold truth about CBEY?

Review Summary: 
Citron Research, and I use the ‘research’ designation with a 40 pound grain of salt, published a report on Cbeyond (NASDAQ:CBEY) that is very unfavorable. It is amazing how someone can bash a company with no real information and get away with it.
Review/Analysis:  
This research is without a doubt one of the worst attempts at destroying the value of a stock, without any evidence, that I have ever seen or can imagine.
Let’s take the four points from the report one at a time:
1. Tracking of market penetration in newer cities is lagging disastrously far behind Cbeyond’s original “big 3?.
Wow, an amazingly round robin way to avoid discussing hugely successful markets. Let’s look at the growth rates and revenues for each of the markets mentioned in the Citron report between 2006 and 2008 (in 000s):
                                2006           2007               2008             % Change 
Atlanta                    63529         72811             81059                27.6
Dallas                     51335         61184             69501                35.4
Denver                    58531         64829             70707                20.8
Chicago                  12281          26748            36367               196.0
Houston                  26382         38990             46843                 85.1
Los Angeles             1828         12347             23669             1295.0
Hmmm…seems like the new markets are growing pretty fast in spite of competition and economic pressures.
2. Competitive forces have been mounting steadily and now present a totally different landscape than when Cbeyond established its presence in its lead cities a decade ago. 
One of the great ways to hide things is to have them somewhere else and not directly inline within a report. Why? Because most readers will never follow the links and read the other materials and then tie the multiple sources together. Seems like that is what a ‘research report’ is supposed to do, isn’t it? But, doing the external reference method is exactly what Citron did here.
First they referenced a blog posting on Telephony Online. Looks kind of official. But, the blog is TelephonyUnfiltered. Anyone can post there. So, it isn’t Telephony Online reporting anything.  But, to be fair, the blog post reports reasonable information: “Small businesses, under pressure from the sagging economy, are in turn increasing pressure on telecom service providers to lower prices”. Sounds perfectly reasonable and nothing that would not be expected in the current economic situation.

Then Citron references a Communications Technology article that states: “Comcast launched broadband wireless service in Portland today”. Uh oh, Cbeyond better watch out. But, that is not what Cbeyond does. It sells not only baseline services, like those provided by Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA), Verizon (NYSE:VZ) and others, it layers on applications. It sells foundational services as a package and with add ons. That is what distinguishes Cbeyond from the others, but Citron failed to make the distinction.
Citron then states: “the cable companies are simply better configured to go cheaper and wireless”. Really? I thought a Mobile Virtual Network Operator (MVNO), like Comcast, utilizes someone elses network and delivery platforms and simply resells? Coincidentally, Comcast is using Clearwire (NASDAQ:CLWR) and Sprint (NYSE:S) (as stated in the very article that Citron referenced). It would have been nice if Citron had bothered to define what a MVNO is and how two MVNOs compete against each other. Perhaps they compete based on layered applications? Like those offered by Cbeyond?
3.  Increasing churn rates.
Wow! This is an unbelievable bending of reality. What happened to comparisons in a research report? It would have been nice if Citron had stated that Verizon has a 1.3% churn rate and ATT (NYSE:T) has a 1.7% churn rate.
It would have been nice if they mentioned that Cbeyond has 3 year contracts while others normally have 2 year contracts.  
It would have also been nice if Citron had explained why the churn rate was increasing. Cbeyond, like any smart business, breaks down the churn rate into ‘controllable’ and ‘uncontrollable’. Here are Cbeyond’s definitions from their annual reports:
Controllable: “includes customers leaving for service or pricing reasons”
Uncontrollable: “includes customers leaving for reasons outside of our control, mainly for non-payment”
Cbeyond’s controllable churn rate has stayed consistently at 0.4%. It is the uncontrollable churn rate that has been increasing and it is due to the current economy, not due to customer dissatisfaction as proposed by Citron.
And what about the ’sweet spot’ that Citron mentions? The “revenue duration beyond commissionable original contract”. Baloney. They try to trick the reader by saying ‘what if the rate jumps up to 2%’? Cbeyonds loyal ‘controllable churn rate’ is only 0.4%. Sounds like the sweet spot lasts a whole lot longer than Citron reported.
Each quarter Cbeyond reports the number of customers added and the churn rate.  According to those numbers, Cbeyond’s total number of customers has increased every quarter for the last two years. From Q308 to Q408 the number of customers increased by 4.7% versus a churn rate of 1.4%.

4. Houston, we have a problem!
Citron glancingly talks about legal problems with the city of Houston suing for ‘right of way’ payments. Well, after being in executive roles in telecom for quite a while, I can tell you this happens all the time. They file the lawsuit to avoid statute of limitations issues since they normally discover discrepancies very late in the game. These always get worked out and are very common.
Conclusions:
Citron Research is trying to drive the stock price down as they have done on many other stocks. They previously called themselves: StockLemon.com. I guess that being called Citron Research lends them an air of credibility. A pity they don’t publish real research.
Cbeyond is growing, competing, and expanding.
Cbeyond has a very competitive product suite at reasonable prices.
Cbeyond is pursuing the SMB space that is almost impossible for the big boys to penetrate and succeed in.
 
Note: I do not own a position in Cbeyond.
 

David Croslin
President, Innovate the Future, Inc.
david@innovatethefuture.com
www.innovatethefuture.com
www.davidcroslin.com

SPEAK WITH THE AUTHOR:
David Croslin consults on this and many other topics through Gerson Lehrman Group. Please click here to contact David Croslin. 

Citron Research Still Trying to Drive Down Cbeyond Stock Price

July 28th, 2009

Original Web Article: Is Cbeyond (CBEY) the subject of an undisclosed Law Enforcement Investigation? Citron Has the Docs.

Review Summary: 
Apparently Citron Research did not drive the stock price of Cbeyond (NASDAQ:CBEY) down far enough with its initial ‘research report’, so Citron is trying to squeeze out more of their lemon juice - frankly everything they have said is just acid with no substance.
Review/Analysis:  
Citron doesn’t seem to know how to actually produce a “research” report. They slap together some disparate information and call it research.
Let’s look at their current attack on Cbeyond one issue at a time:
1) It gets worse …. Much worse
Citron apparently did a request to the FTC to get a list of consumer complaints. Like everyone else, they have to do a Freedom of Information (FoI) request to obtain it. This is normal and the FoI request is a required step. Frequently viewed reports are available to the consumer without issuing and FOI request.
Citron states that they received: “100+ page file of customer complaints – and a lot of them are very serious indeed”.
Let’s examine what they got one step at a time:
They got “100+ pages of consumer complaints”. What they don’t tell you is that the FTC “located approximately 200 pages of responsive records”. Each record, or page, contains A SINGLE COMPLAINT. So, there are only approximately 200 complaints relative to Cbeyond on file with the FTC. Considering Cbeyond has tens of thousands of customers with thousands of new ones added all the time, having only 200 complaints is pretty darn amazing. 
 

“and a lot of them are very serious indeed”. Citron points you to a file where they scanned in FOUR COMPLAINTS. Not 100, FOUR!  The complaints they use as examples are dated 11/25/2008 (page 40), 1/15/2009 (page 23), 2/10/2009 (page 18) and 5/13/2009 (page 1). The complains are in historical date order going backwards in time. So, the most recent complaint that the FTC forwarded (page 1 - 5/13/2009) was over one month old at the time the results were pulled by the FTC for Citron’s request for a list of complaints. Also note, there can only be EIGHTEEN complaints in the three month period between 2/10/2009 and 5/13/2009 (pages 1-18). Also, notice that page 23, i.e. complaint 23 is dated 1/15/2009. Does this mean that there have ONLY BEEN TWENTY THREE COMPLAINTS FILED SINCE JANUARY? Sounds like a huge growth in the number of consumer complaints to me!
And the complaint on page 18 is about slow number portability. Number portability is one of the most common complaints on the planet and it constantly causes problems for every carrier in the U.S.

2) “Law Enforcement Investigation”
Citron states in their latest “report update”: “Of even more concern is that over 100 pages of documentation were specifically withheld by the FTC because, as it cites, the documents were obtained by the Commission “in a law enforcement investigation”.”
First, let’s discuss the “in a law enforcement investigation”. EVERY COMPLAINT TO THE FTC IS A LAW ENFORCEMENT INVESTIGATION. Was that enough discussion. The FTC enforces laws. A complaint is a potential violation of the law. The FTC investigates the complaints. 
Citron makes it sound like some legal entity is investigating Cbeyond. Perhaps there is somewhere, but this letter from the FTC is not saying that at all.
Now, let’s discuss the “specifically withheld” part of Citron’s statements. The FTC letter references Section 21(f) of the FTC Act as the reason the other “over 100 pages of documentation were specifically withheld” (as stated by Citron). Well, Section 21(f) of the FTC Act says that the FTC does not have to release information under a Freedom of Information request if the SUBMITTER of the complaint has defined the complain as CONFIDENTIAL and has requested under section 21(f) that the complaint not be made public. 
So, the other 100 or so complaints were withheld because the consumer requested that they be withheld. Not because Cbeyond is being investigated.
Cbeyond has consistently maintained a low churn rate of 0.4% for “controllable” reasons which they define as: “includes customers leaving for service or pricing reasons”. Kind of hard to imagine their customer service and practices being as bad as Citron states if they have maintained that 0.4% churn rate.

3) The numbers are worse than we originally thought
Citron tried to pull the wool over everyone’s eyes with their previous comments concerning Cbeyond’s supposed disastrous churn rate and their lack of growth in new markets. Well, Citron figured out another way to make things look bad in three other markets (San Diego, Detroit, and San Francisco) by referencing only the free cash flow and doing it in a rather bizarre way of combining three markets (that started at different times) and showing cumulative negative cash flow, rather than just cash flow.
Regardless, let’s take this logically, instead of Citron’s normal approach. If Cbeyond wants to open a new market then they have to spend money to create a network and delivery platforms in order to sell services. Right? In the initial years you have a large capital investment. Look at what Verizon (NYSE:VZ) is spending for FIOS. Does anyone create a bizarre cumulative negative cash flow picture for Verizon’s markets?
Over time, you get new customers and revenues and justify your investment in your new markets. Citron says Cbeyond is failing in new markets. But, what do Cbeyond’s numbers for the three markets show? Remember that San Diego started in 1Q07, Detroit in 3Q07 and San Francisco in 4Q07. Revenue is in thousands.
                            Revenue ‘07  Revenue ‘08
San Diego               2,510               10,728
Detroit                        576                  5472
San Francisco              39                  3372          
It looks like Cbeyond is adding customers aggressively in their new markets and is on track to easily exceed capital expenditures.

4) Meanwhile the company burned free cash 
Every entrepreneurial company will burn its free cash in new markets and products.
Conclusions: Here is Citron’s most recent conclusion: “Red flags are abounding here.  Citron will continue to follow the story, but reiterates its opinion that CBEY is generously overvalued at half its current share price.”
Here is mine: As of the end of 2008, Cbeyond had $37M in cash and cash equivalents and NO DEBT. They are penetrating new markets, investing wisely, growing their customer base and maintaining high customer satisfaction. They are managing the issues created by the current economic situation by tightening their credit policies and other actions. 
Note: I do not hold a position in Cbeyond nor am I affiliated with Cbeyond in any way.
 

David Croslin
President, Innovate the Future, Inc.
david@innovatethefuture.com
www.innovatethefuture.com
www.davidcroslin.com

SPEAK WITH THE AUTHOR:
David Croslin consults on this and many other topics through Gerson Lehrman Group. Please click here to contact David Croslin.