Original Web Article: MetroPCS to launch 4G mobile network
Review Summary:
Network Long Term Evolution (LTE) or 4G will deliver higher speeds and more reliability. But who will benefit the most? And how will they benefit? Service providers with increased ARPU? Network equipment vendors with increased sales? Device manufacturers with increased churn? Software vendors with increased markets? Consumers with increased functionality?
Review/Analysis:
Who will benefit the most from LTE deployment? The shifts that are occurring involve a whole lot more than just deployment of LTE. Let’s look at key topics for each of the players:
Service Providers:
- Everyone is jumping on LTE. Why? Because the devices like SmartPhones and Netbooks suck up so much capacity that nothing else will deliver the services that consumers are starting to aggressively utilize and demand. If you don’t evolve to LTE, you will not be able to compete.
- Network build-out will be very expensive and will occur in stages over 1-5 years depending on the size of the network. Fiber backhaul is a must. Broadband stimulus funds will drive rural fiber deployment.
- Increased ARPU will come from layered and personalized, lifestyle related services. Infrastructure management platforms will be more critical than ever.
- Cloud computing will accelerate and continue to increase bandwidth demand.
- The need for dynamic bandwidth management to improve QOS will increase dramatically.
Network Equipment Vendors:
- Big or small, OEMs will all benefit if positioned correctly.
- Traditional relationships will not survive. Specialty players (startups and niche players) have tremendous opportunities ahead of them.
- Technologies must be stable and in place before mid-2010 to satisfy lab trials.
- Niche players have prime opportunities within the initiatives of large OEMs to penetrate the small to medium enterprise space.
Device Manufacturers:
- Traditional cell phones, PCs and notebooks will remain commoditized and decrease in volume.
Netbooks, driven by key Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) initiatives, will dominate consumer and corporate purchases. - Corporate refresh cycles will shrink to 2-3 years at most. Prices will fall, but increased refresh will assist.
- External, attachable device manufacturers will become critical players.
- Unique designs, integrating the best of Smartphones and Netbooks, layered with Bluetooth and wireless devices, will blend the two markets and open the best opportunities for manufacturers.
- New and improved device types such as laser keyboards and projectors, flexible keyboards, solid state drives and others will become commonplace to maximize quality of experience.
Software Vendors:
- Smaller software vendors have a prime opportunity. Network and device shifts will open new markets through cloud based solutions.
- Larger vendors must create ‘good enough’ versions of their products in order to compete in the small to medium enterprise space and to simplify integration with more portable devices.
- Blended solutions from multiple vendors will maximize penetration into untapped markets.
- Independent developers will have huge exposure through Smartphones, Netbooks and application library offerings from Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) and others.
Consumers:
- Consumers win. Period.
- Blending of devices will increase lifestyle integration and decrease the number of devices.
- Cloud based software with per usage models will become the norm.
- Media shifting into the cloud will deliver staggered stream services across all devices for continuous enjoyment.
- Competition for consumers will increase similar to the previous cell phone market and drive prices down.
Ubiquitous services.
Everyone will win (or have the opportunity to win). For a while…
President, Innovate the Future, Inc.
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David Croslin consults on this and many other topics through Gerson Lehrman Group. Please click here to contact David Croslin.